The 2024 election is over, more or less – with a number of seats in the House of Representatives still to be decided.
But it’s clear Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States – only being the second President to have non-consecutive terms (the first was Grover Cleveland, with elections in 1884 and 1892).
So whatever else, Trump’s reelection is unique in the last 132 years.
At this point, from the rending of garments by the ‘smart people’ on major news networks and among the Hollywood elite, it would be assumed Nietzsche’s abyss is staring us in the face.
At the same time, on various social media platforms, others would have us believe the Second Coming has occurred, and the demons will be banished.
I doubt either is completely true – or completely false. But it doesn’t appear it’s a concern of the majority of the electorate – with the exception of those mentioned above and some ‘activists’ on both sides.
From what I’ve seen people have continued on with their daily routines, concerned about their lives and their futures – same as always.
What Trump’s next term will be remains to be seen. I look to see who become members of his administration and who is whispering in his ear.
At the same time, there are a major economic and international issues outside the control of the President that could render moot all other contrived or real issues.
On the international scene, the biggest risk is in the Mideast – with the madman Netanyahu determined to draw the U.S. into a hot war with Iran.
That is a particular concern between now and January 20th, 2025 where a war with dead Americans in body bags would present the incoming administration with a fait accompli, no matter what Trump might or might not want.
Any such war would also likely result in a global oil shortage – with Iran closing the Straits of Hormua and threatening to strike other regional oil facilities. Oil has been predicted to go to $130 per barrel, with gas prices doubling (at a minimum). A global depression would seem inevitable.
Even the above doesn’t include the nightmare possibility of that war erupting into a regional conflict with use of nuclear weapons (by Israel) that would draw in all the major powers; an innumerably times worse replay of The Guns of August.
The other major issue is the national debt and the bond market. A General Accounting Office (GAO) report of its audit of the Federal debt reveals that $16 trillion dollars (61%) of the debt will need to be refinanced over the next five years – all of it at higher interest rates.
Both political parties share in the blame for that situation – through reckless spending and taxation policies, and an inability or unwillingness to talk about it. It was a non-issue in this recent election, but will become a real issue with hyperinflation or significantly higher interest rates that will crush economic activity.
Whether one sees Trump as a Marvel super hero – or the anti-Christ, it’s vital to put the election of a US president into its proper context.
The presidency is an office that seemingly has unlimited power, but one limited by the bureaucratic state and a world that has been begun to look past the United States and see it as a fading empire – still a powerful nation, but one (like its President) that doesn’t call all the shots.
Even within U.S. domestic politics, it’s important to see the election of Trump in its historical context.
The present Republican party is essentially the cult of Donald Trump. But as Chris Hedges has noted, cults do not typically survive the passing of the cult leader.
So as the race for the next election begins in 2025 after the inauguration (both for Congressional seats in 2026 and the election of 2028), the different elements within the Republican coalition will create centripetal forces, splintering the party among a small minority of libertarians; the Christian nationalists (a terrifying organized force); and MAGA, which was, and is, a working-class revolt against the inequalities in the U.S. economic system.
I don’t see any current Republican who can command that coalition after Donald Trump. Don Junior may see himself in that role, but his influence appears limited beyond being a reflection of his father. When the Donald goes, so goes the coalition.
The Democrats also face a reckoning – if they are smart enough to recognize it.
The ‘New Democrats’ that slithered in with the Arkansas swamp creatures in 1992, with their focus on the priorities of the investor class, have been finally discredited.
Their 30 year reign over the Democratic Party- through the administrations of Clinton, Obama, and Biden – has come to an end with the reelection of Donald Trump. Trump received significant numbers of votes from ‘communities’ the Democrats have considered their own – while all the while ignoring the very real issues and needs of those communities.
The party of FDR and JFK – the party of the working and middle classes – became a party of elitists and technocrats, who saw their primary base in the professional managerial class of the suburbs. H. Clinton expressed their view when she called half the citizens in this country a ‘basket of deplorables’.
As bad as that sensibility was, it only built on the events of the Obama administration that protected the perpetrators of the 2008 financial crisis and whose Justice Department was used to crush Occupy Wall Street in 2011.
As Bernie Sanders wrote this week: “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them,”
Who the Democrats turn to – after 30 years of neoliberal politicians and ‘leaders’ – is an open question. Emphatically, it is not to be found in any of the many acolytes of the Clintons or Obamas. Anyone praised in the mainstream media should be immediately suspect.
But one has to hope new leaders arise in a party that returns to its roots by working for economic justice for all (rather than boutique social issues) – and takes determined action to build a better future for the disaffected working class (and what remains of the middle class).
Otherwise, the only organized group left will be the Christian nationalists led by a charming cult leader – and that should scare the Hell out of everyone.
